We’re already about a month into the Bundesliga’s restart, and other top European leagues are set to follow suit. Spain’s La Liga will resume its stalled 2019-20 campaign on Thursday, while Serie A in Italy will kick off again two days later. Either league finishing its season seemed close to unthinkable as recently as two months ago, so the fact that they’re set to return is obviously great news. The Premier League in England returns next Wednesday, June 17.
The first La Liga fixture will be the Seville Derby between Sevilla and Real Betis. The next day, Granada will face Getafe, while Valencia will play host to Levante. Saturday brings another four fixtures, including the return of Barcelona, while Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will be among the six teams to resume action on Sunday.
There will be at least one La Liga fixture every single day for the next couple of weeks as the league scrambles to get its season completed before August. Obviously, that’s music to the ears of Spanish soccer fans. It’s also welcome news for Spanish soccer bettors, who have had to wait over three months to put some money down on Spain’s top flight.
There is still plenty left for which to fight at both ends of the table. Barcelona are currently just two points clear of archrivals Real Madrid in the title race. Sevilla sit third, but they’re already 11 points behind the league-leaders. With so little time left in the season, this looks like a two-horse race. 먹튀검증 사이트 추천
That said, Sevilla will still have to try and ward off a number of teams vying to finish in the top four to secure a Champions League place. At the other end of the spectrum, Espanyol, Leganes, and Mallorca currently sit in the relegation zone. Celta Vigo, Eibar, and Valladolid aren’t out of the woods yet, though.
Let’s break down the remainder of the La Liga campaign from a betting perspective.
Heated Relegation Battle
As mentioned, there are still plenty of teams fighting to stay in the top flight for at least another year. Espanyol have mustered just 20 points from 27 games with a record of 4-8-15, so they’re understandably looking like the most likely side to be pushed down to the Segunda Division next season:
Every team in the league has 11 games left in the season. Obviously, plenty can happen in the span of 11 games. The current bottom-three are listed as minus-money favorites to go down, but 18th-place Mallorca are just one point south of 17th-place Celta Vigo. Eibar are just two points north of the relegation zone, while Valladolid are four points up.
Espanyol weren’t in terrible form at the time of the shutdown. Their previous five league fixtures featured a win over Mallorca, draws against Sevilla and Atletico, and losses to Valladolid and Osasuna. Still, it may be too little, too late for RCDE. Espanyol’s plunge to the bottom of the table is a surprise considering this side finished seventh and in a Europa League spot a season ago, but I think they may have dug too deep a hole.
Mallorca have a tough rest-of-season schedule that features games against Barca, Real Madrid, Villarreal, Atletico, and Sevilla. However, they’ll also have huge games against fellow relegation candidates in Leganes, Levante, and Celta Vigo.
There’s definitely value on the plus-money teams just outside the sports zone. Eibar, for example, has to face Real, Athletic, Getafe, Grenada, and Valencia before the season’s out. All of those clubs are currently 10th in the table or better. This is also a side that lost four of their five games before the hiatus. While it’s hard to suggest momentum will be a factor after a three-month layoff, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if this side’s confidence is a bit shaky. It also sounds like Eibar were one of the clubs reluctant to return to play. I wonder why?
Espanyol looks like the obvious best bet here, but you’re not getting much bang for your buck at -500. Given the condensed nature of the bottom of the table, I’d prefer to take a shot on Eibar at +200 or Valladolid at +500.
Champions League Fight
As is the case in England, the teams that finish in the top four places of the table earn automatic qualification into next year’s Champions League. The four La Liga sides that were invited to this past season’s edition of Europe’s top tournament were Barcelona, Atleti, Real Madrid, and Valencia.
We know Barca are battling Real at the top of the table again this year, but Atleti and Valencia have faded. Atletico are actually still alive in the 2019-20 Champions League after upsetting Liverpool just before the season stopped, but Diego Simeone’s side are just sixth in the league table. Valencia, meanwhile, are seventh.
Updated odds to finish in the Champions League places are as follows:
It’s inconceivable that Barca or Real fall out of the top-four, so Bovada didn’t even bother to handicap either club. What’s interesting is that the aforementioned sixth-place Atleti are -175 co-favorites with Sevilla to crack the top-four at season’s end.
Atletico Are Due To Move Up
It goes without saying that Atletico have underperformed expectations this season. The fact that they were able to stave off Liverpool, arguably the best team in Europe, in their most recent game tells you all you need to know.
Atletico have always been a strong defensive side under Simeone, but the goals haven’t come in bunches without Antoine Griezmann in the side this term. Atleti have scored 31 while conceding 21 in league play this season. That’s actually the second-fewest goals allowed in the entire league. Expected goals (xG) say that Atletico should have 36.6 goals this season, with an xG conceded of 21.7. So, the conceded goals are about in line with expectations. They are just due for some positive regression when it comes to scoring for themselves.
'Every time I see it the hairs on my skin stand up!'
Atletico’s expected goal differential of plus-14.9 is the third-best in the league, trailing only Real (plus-24.9) and Barcelona (plus-22). The side’s schedule out of the break is favorable, as they’ll open against Athletic Bilbao, Osasuna, Valladolid, Levante, and Alaves before a showdown against Barcelona at the beginning of July. After that, though, they’ll see more weak teams like Mallorca, Celta Vigo, and Betis.
While the team hasn’t gotten the results it should have so far this season, I’m confident that Atleti will find a way to get into the top-four by the time the season concludes. They’re currently sixth place on 45 points, while the teams immediately in front of them (Sociedad and Getafe) have 46. That ground can be made up very easily.
Best Bet For One Champions League Spot: Atletico Madrid (-175)
Last Champions League Spot?
If Barca, Atleti, and Real are going to nab top-four finishes, that leaves just one more for the remaining clubs to fight over. As things stand, I don’t mind taking a shot on Real Sociedad given the current +200 odds.
Socidedad may have overperformed expectations this season. The side has a goal differential of plus-12, which is tied for the third-best mark in La Liga. Per expected goals, they should be around plus-seven. However, that’s still a respectable fifth-best xG differential, trailing only Real, Barca, Atleti, and Sevilla.
Sevilla may have a one-point edge on Sociedad as of now, but I don’t love the -175 number. Both teams have fairly comparable schedules. Sociedad faces Real Madrid in their third match back, but that’s one of just two fixtures against top-10 sides among their first nine scheduled games. 안전 토토사이트 추천
How Sociedad finish the season could prove crucial. They’ll take on Sevilla and Atleti in their last two games of the campaign. Given how close these teams are in the table, I’d be totally fine with taking a flier on Sociedad to eke out Sevilla at +200.
Best Bet For Other Champions League Spot: Real Sociedad (+200)
It wouldn’t be a La Liga season if the title race didn’t come down to Barcelona vs. Real, would it? Madrid have endured a couple of lean years domestically, having finished third in the table in back-to-back seasons. Zinedine Zidane seems to have restored order this term, though, as Los Blancos are back in the thick of things.
Barca, meanwhile, are in search of their third straight league title. Barcelona have won La Liga five times in the last seven years, and the side hasn’t finished worse than second in the league table since a third-place finish in 2007-08. At this point, these are the only two teams with realistic title odds:
Real inched closer by beating Barcelona in El Clasico by a 2-0 margin back on March 1. That was Barcelona’s lone defeat in their last six games before the hiatus, though, so gaining ground hasn’t been easy for Zidane’s side.
Injuries Could Factor Into Race
Unfortunately, both legs of El Clasico are already in the rearview mirror, which means Real won’t get another direct chance to try and overtake their rivals. However, Lionel Messi may not be fully fit upon the league’s resumption. Barcelona’s talisman has missed a pair of training sessions over the past week with a thigh issue. While he has since returned, playing two games a week for six weeks could be tough on the 33-year-old.
Luis Suarez has returned from his own injury, but Ousmane Dembele won’t be available. Barcelona will also face tough road clashes against Villarreal and Sevilla, as well as home fixtures with Atletico and Athletic Bilbao.
Real Madrid will get a boost with Eden Hazard set to return. Hazard has been a massive disappointment so far this season after arriving from Chelsea last summer, but the Belgian international was thought to be lost for the season when he underwent an ankle procedure in March. The hiatus has allowed him to return to full fitness, though, and he has reportedly looked phenomenal in training. If Real get Eden Hazard at the peak of his powers, they’re in business.
Madrid will also get Marco Asensio back after he was thought to have been lost for the season after tearing his ACL last summer. While Los Blancos face a two-point deficit, Real will be awarded the title if the two sides finish level on points at season’s end.
Take the Value
Real Madrid are working with a deeper roster as things stand now. While Barcelona are understandable favorites, this is a situation in which I’m inclined to scoop the plus-money odds and run. All it takes is one game to turn the entire title race on its head. READ MORE
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Real are also a significantly younger side than Barcelona. The heavy workload of the congested fixture schedule could negatively affect the league-leaders more than the challengers. I like Real Madrid to overtake Barcelona once the season ends, so grab the +135 while you can.
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